How can you ensure you deliver a programme successfully, when so many elements aren’t predictable, and you might also be derailed by unexpected events? We live in an uncertain world, with unprecedented change in the last few years, much of which we couldn’t have predicted.
Government sponsored or funded programmes in particular are often subject to high levels of uncertainty as they exist in a constantly evolving economic, political and social environment. Uncertainties can have major consequences for meeting objectives, take for example achieving Net Zero.
Uncertainty also comes from such programmes being among the largest, longest running and most complex programmes undertaken (think HS2), as well as often including innovative elements. For example, programmes aiming to exploit new technologies, such as the COVID-19 vaccination programme.
Questions for decision-makers
The NAO supports Parliament in holding the UK Government to account and helps improve public services through high-quality audits. Our guide: Managing uncertainty: Questions for decision-makers to ask in an uncertain environment is more relevant than ever. It is based on NAO insights from reports across a wide range of government programmes, as well as government guidance relating to risk and uncertainty.
ALARM members are used to working with risk and uncertainty, but our NAO guide may be useful in informing decision-making on managing programmes in your organisation.
We class uncertainties as ‘things that are not known, or are in a state of doubt, or are things whose effect is difficult to know.’ We want to help decision-makers work with uncertainty. We lay out some commonplace things to watch out for, good questions to ask and some case study examples to reflect on.
We found that in planning and delivering programmes, decision-makers and teams don’t always take the time to understand and consider wider uncertainties or can underestimate their impact.
This results in options and plans not sufficiently taking account of the underlying uncertainties, providing a false sense of certainty or plans which aren’t resilient enough to change. In these cases, it’s less likely the programme will deliver its objectives or be able to respond to opportunities and, ultimately, public trust in public service organisations and a government’s ability to deliver programmes is more likely to be eroded.
To secure the benefits of innovative approaches and to address complex challenges, organisations and government need to be more comfortable working with uncertainty.
Decision-makers still need to make value-for-money decisions even in the context of uncertainties that are harder to anticipate or mitigate.
To help people grapple with the challenge, we split questions to ask yourself into three areas: identifying, analysing, and planning for uncertainty.
Identify uncertainty – leave no stone unturned
It’s important to identify the range of uncertainties that may impact a programme, and how they impact the programme’s objectives, to inform your decision-making.
Uncertainties may come from many sources, including the nature of the programme; for example the degree of innovation involved or the method of delivery, the clarity of outcomes, organisational capacity, interdependencies or information.
Uncertainties can also come from the external environment such as changes in the social or economic context, changes in political priorities, or through the impact of climate change.
Programmes with a significant digital element can often be characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, and identifying these uncertainties is critical.
Analyse uncertainty – transparency is your friend
Decision-makers need information on the potential impact of different
uncertainties, and the range of possible outcomes that may occur and their relative likelihoods, to be able to make informed and resilient plans.
Analysing uncertainty is challenging and often decision-makers must make decisions based on incomplete data and assumptions. It’s therefore important that the programme team conducts robust analysis using the best available data, communicates their analysis, including key assumptions and limitations, clearly and transparently, and the analysis is subject to challenge and scrutiny.
Plan for uncertainty – be prepared
Most strategic programmes won’t be able to avoid operating without some uncertainty. Decision-makers may need to weigh up the trade-offs of rethinking a programme’s scope to reduce uncertainty against continuing with high levels of uncertainty.
For example, you may decide to delay a programme until there’s better understanding of how to manage and deal with uncertainty. Often, uncertainty can’t be completely removed or mitigated against. Programme teams need to consider how to design the programme to be flexible enough to deal with ongoing uncertainty.
Dealing with uncertainties is part of delivering the sorts of complex and innovative programmes for which public service organisations and governments are responsible. Our guide, including the list of further resources, will help decision-makers be more comfortable working with uncertainty.
